By Tonde Maruke
The Botswana election was closely watched across the region, Zimbabwe included. The result was stunning; the governing Botswana Democratic Party lost to the opposition coalition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change. This ended close to six decades of uninterrupted BDP rule.
The UDC won the most seats. The BDP had the second-highest votes – but it got only four seats due to the first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all voting system.
Of course, Zimbabwe’s opposition supporters have been celebrating the Botswana election result. It is inspirational. Amid the celebration, some analysts have barged in to tell the Zimbabwe opposition support base to tone down their joy. However, there is a lot that these members of the “thought police” are missing. The opposition has every reason to celebrate when allies of their opponents fall. There is also a lot that the Zimbabwe opposition itself and its supporters need to consider, even in their justified joy and hope.
In this article, let me explain.
Why are the opposition happy?
1. Masisi was Emmerson Mnangagwa’s friend. Politics in Zimbabwe is black and white, however we may want to colour it. So, any friend of ED’s, is obviously disliked by those who dislike ED
2. A ‘liberation party’ losing an election gives hope to the opposition. This is why it has also given wings to the opposition in Namibia and Tanzania, two regional countries that go to elections soon.
3. The UDC win gives hope that it can one day be done: It was third time lucky for Duma Boko; First, he lost to Ian Khama, and then to Mokgweeetsi Masisi in 2019. Now he has won. In Zambia, Hakainde Hichilema won on his sixth try. That gives hope to many opposition parties and supporters.
4. Opposition hopes that more ‘opposition’ wins in the region will ‘isolate’ ZANU PF. The reason opposition in Zimbabwe cheer Hichilema is that they believe he’s on their side, not ZANU PF’s.
Amid the joy, some caution
It is natural, and even good, to celebrate. What the Botswana election must do is push the Zimbabwe opposition to organise better against a formidable opponent. Here are some truths to consider.
1. Having an opposition next door doesn’t automatically boost the Zimbabwe opposition. It is up to the opposition itself to do that.
2. Isolation: An ‘isolated’ Zimbabwe ruling party doesn’t translate to a winning Zim opposition party. Again, it takes a lot more. If anything, the siege mentality may worsen their paranoia.
3. Hichilema’s mere presence may have generated headlines, and social media content, as shown during the 2023 election. Beyond that? There has been little traction for opposition. That’s just about what it has given Zimbabwe opposition – headlines and content! It could be more. The opposition needs to invest more in building alliances across the region.
4. The hope among the opposition is that ZANU PF, with its poor foreign policy and PR, will immediately do as they always do: irrationally go after the new Botswana president instead of being calm and trying to build new alliances. We are already seeing some rash comments from some of them, including government officials. Opposition, in whatever form it currently is, will be encouraged by this. However, it will need to work hard on foreign policy to take advantage of ZANU PF own goals.
