Zimbabwe passes first IMF test, but Fund warns of risks ahead

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the first review of Zimbabwe’s 10-month Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP), saying the country has met key targets, but warning of rising risks to growth.

The 10-month Staff-Monitored Programme, which began in May, is an IMF-supervised reform programme under which Zimbabwe’s economic policies are regularly assessed against agreed targets. The completion of the first review does not unlock IMF funding, but is key for Zimbabwe as it seeks to rebuild relations with international lenders to restructure debt.

In a statement on Monday, the IMF said completion of the review “marks an important step in consolidating recent stabilisation gains and strengthening Zimbabwe’s track record of policy implementation in support of arrears clearance, debt restructuring, and re-engagement with the international community.”

The IMF says implementation of the programme had been strong, with “all end-March quantitative targets” met, including those covering the budget balance, international reserves, and external borrowing. It also noted that structural reform benchmarks for March and June had been completed. Progress, says the IMF, “will help advance discussions with external partners and support the next stages of Zimbabwe’s re-engagement process.”

However, the Fund’s assessment shows one area of concern. While the Government met its fiscal and monetary targets, it missed its target for protected social and priority spending, a reminder that tight fiscal discipline comes with costs for the poor.

The IMF said the missed target “underscores the need to improve budget execution and ensure timely support to vulnerable groups.”

The Fund says Zimbabwe’s economy remained resilient last year, growing by 8.3% and supported by improved agricultural output, strong mining activity and high gold prices. Growth is projected to slow to 5% in 2026 and average 4.2% over the medium term.

But the IMF warns: “The outlook remains favourable, but risks are tilted to the downside.” It cites the threat of a major El Niño drought and a renewed war in the Middle East.