President Emmerson Mnangagwa would probably tell you that “Iran is very far away from Zimbabwe”, but the impact of the war involving Iran, the US and Israel may be felt closer to home.
Through trade routes, fuel prices and travel, here’s how the conflict could impact Zimbabwe if it drags on.
Trade: Dubai is our biggest trade gateway
Dubai accounts for about half the value of Zimbabwe’s exports. That’s because most of our gold, by far the country’s biggest export, moves through Dubai’s gold hub before some of it heads to final markets. In January alone, exports to Dubai were worth US$500.1 million, about half of all exports. Any prolonged disruption to flights, shipping, insurance or payments through the Gulf risks slowing that pipeline. If the war drags on for too long, gold exports may be affected.
Higher oil prices, bigger fuel bills
Conflict in or around major energy corridors usually pushes oil prices up. Higher crude prices quickly filter through to fuel, transport and food costs, feeding inflation for households and businesses. Oil prices have jumped above US$100 a barrel, sharply higher than just over US$60 in January. The latest spike is driven by fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply.
In response, the energy regulator, ZERA, has raised fuel prices, which were already among the highest in the region. It also means more forex will be used to import fuel. In 2025, Zimbabwe spent US$1.8 billion on fuel imports. Higher prices will push that bill up, while Zimbabwe and other regional importers will spend more to build larger fuel storage reserves as a buffer.
Commodity prices: Zimbabwe needs about 780,000 tonnes of basal and top-dressing fertiliser every year. With local fertiliser producers in crisis – Windmill is under corporate rescue – Zimbabwe relies on imports. Yet, the price of urea, key for nitrogen in fertiliser, is up 35% since the war started, due to the disruption of trade through the Strait. This means farmers will pay more for fertilisers this year, just as the key wheat season starts. The impact will also be felt in the summer season. Higher fertiliser prices mean higher food costs.
Gold prices: a mixed blessing
In global crises, gold prices usually rise as investors seek safer assets. That has played out over the past year, with gold hitting record highs. It’s good for export earnings: Zimbabwean miners benefited, with gold earning US$4.5 billion last year, almost double 2024 levels. But if the conflict disrupts logistics through Dubai and other routes, Zimbabwe may not fully capture that upside.
Tourism: travel is fragile
If tensions drag on, long-haul travel becomes pricier and more risk-averse. That can mean fewer Middle East and connecting-hub travellers, and pressure on airlines’ routes into Southern Africa, bad news for hotels, parks and conference tourism. Emirates operates seven flights a week between Harare and Dubai. The airline has resumed some limited flights after suspending operations over the weekend.
Fall of an ally
Zimbabwe has long viewed Iran as an economic ally, even though actual trade between the two is small. That political closeness was on display in 2023, when Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi visited Zimbabwe and promised cooperation talks. These included a proposed tractor assembly plant with Tractor Manufacturing Industrial Company, one of the Middle East’s largest suppliers, and plans to supply medical equipment and drugs from Caspian Tamin Pharmaceutical Company, Iran’s leading pharmaceutical producer.
